More notes on the Bay area housing market
Saturday, 5 March 2005
Carlos sent me an interesting summary page about the Bay area housing bubble. I wish there were more links substantiating the assertions there (a few ring false), but it is thought-provoking.
I happen to have a bit more specific data; namely, the sales figures for houses in the Bay area over the past few years. I’m interested in the affordability of a 3-bedroom house (or condo, or apartment) in San Mateo county, and this is what a little Python scripting and Excel jockeying tells me;
Even more interesting, if hard to read, is the scatter plot of 3-bedroom sales in San Mateo county during this period.
Quite apropos, The Economist has yet another article on the global housing market that ends with this observation;
The figures look even more striking in the San Francisco Bay Area, where it is possible to rent an $800,000 house for $2,000 a month. Making the same assumptions about rents and house prices, but also deducting tax relief on a fixed-rate mortgage and adding property taxes, a buyer would pay $120,000 more over seven years than if he had rented. House prices in San Francisco would need to rise by at least 4% a year (2% in real terms) for it to prove cheaper to buy a house. Since 1950 American house prices in real terms have risen by an annual average of just over 1%. To expect them to rise faster from their current dizzy heights smacks of irrational exuberance, to say the least.
UPDATE: see what it looks like in early 2008.
40 Comments
Mark Nottingham said:
Sunday, March 27 2005 at 9:13 AM
indranil said:
Sunday, March 27 2005 at 12:36 PM
Michael said:
Thursday, April 7 2005 at 9:49 AM
Mark Nottingham said:
Thursday, April 7 2005 at 10:49 AM
Steve Parkos said:
Thursday, April 21 2005 at 10:53 AM
Tina said:
Saturday, April 30 2005 at 6:43 AM
lauren said:
Sunday, June 5 2005 at 11:55 AM
John said:
Saturday, August 20 2005 at 9:23 AM
Traveller said:
Friday, January 6 2006 at 12:43 PM
JP said:
Wednesday, March 8 2006 at 4:37 AM
JP said:
Wednesday, March 8 2006 at 4:40 AM
bought it said:
Tuesday, March 28 2006 at 8:30 AM
Mark Nottingham said:
Tuesday, March 28 2006 at 8:50 AM
Julian said:
Monday, April 3 2006 at 10:55 AM
Dolphin said:
Wednesday, April 5 2006 at 2:57 AM
John said:
Thursday, April 6 2006 at 3:47 AM
Joey said:
Monday, May 8 2006 at 8:50 AM
Roz said:
Thursday, May 11 2006 at 1:05 AM
Mama Buggy said:
Wednesday, June 14 2006 at 5:01 AM
Rob said:
Wednesday, June 21 2006 at 3:55 AM
John said:
Sunday, July 16 2006 at 11:35 AM
Carleigh said:
Thursday, July 27 2006 at 10:07 AM
ss said:
Friday, July 28 2006 at 8:39 AM
Bay Area Resident said:
Monday, August 14 2006 at 11:37 AM
ilan said:
Wednesday, August 16 2006 at 10:24 AM
HOMEOWNER said:
Sunday, October 22 2006 at 12:26 PM
Jack said:
Monday, November 20 2006 at 11:56 AM
john said:
Wednesday, November 29 2006 at 2:05 AM
Jean said:
Friday, January 5 2007 at 1:50 AM
Jenny said:
Wednesday, February 28 2007 at 3:50 AM
Big V said:
Tuesday, March 6 2007 at 8:43 AM
lost_everything_by_owning said:
Wednesday, April 4 2007 at 9:58 AM
san said:
Thursday, April 5 2007 at 3:02 AM
Big V said:
Thursday, April 5 2007 at 11:10 AM
real est-hater said:
Friday, April 6 2007 at 10:48 AM
John said:
Thursday, May 3 2007 at 10:48 AM
Kent said:
Saturday, May 5 2007 at 3:23 AM
TL said:
Thursday, June 14 2007 at 11:22 AM
MB said:
Sunday, June 24 2007 at 3:15 AM
jc said:
Friday, October 19 2007 at 10:06 AM